Based on the News Here Now Anti-Vote-Splitting Poll, the outcome of the following Manitoba elections can change if enough voters mark their ballot for a “can-win” candidate instead of marking their ballot for a “can't-win” candidate.
Warning: This Anti-Vote-Splitting Poll is experimental, and the small number of voters in this Anti-Vote-Splitting Poll do not — and cannot — fully represent the diversity of voters in each district. If the plurality percentages here (in the right column of your riding's table) are not similar to the plurality (First-Past-The-Post) percentages obtained from other polls with more participants, please tell us so we can make corrections as needed. Thanks!
Please click on a riding name of interest to view its detailed results.
Progressive Conservative Party candidates are likely to win the seats in the following ridings, even if more voters prefer some other candidate. Why? These ridings do not have just one popular opposition candidate on whom opposition voters can concentrate their votes.
Click on one of the above links to see the poll details for that riding
Everyone in Manitoba — especially in Winnipeg, Brandon, Steinbach, Portage la Prairie, and Thompson — is welcome to vote here!
Currently we, the voters in Manitoba, have an undemocratic election system that cannot handle more than two, or maybe three, strong candidates in each riding. Specifically it has a weakness called “vote splitting” that defeats the most popular candidates and instead elects a less-popular candidate when the election involves more than two strong candidates.
The information gathered by this special anti-vote-splitting poll empowers you, as a voter, to mark your official ballot in a way that defeats the candidate you most dislike, even if vote-splitting gives an advantage to your most-disliked candidate.
As more Manitoba voters participate in this poll, the more accurate the predictions become, so please tell your friends and neighbors about this poll so they can spread the word, especially before the next election.
Here, today, you get to fill out a ranked ballot rather than marking just a single candidate as your “favorite.” The extra information — from you and other voters in your riding — is used with pairwise counting to correctly identify both the most popular candidate and the best opposition candidate.
The extra information also reveals popularity with fewer ballots because each voter is comparing every candidate against every other candidate.
At the top of the following list are the ridings in which the wrong candidate is likely to win because of vote splitting. Also at the top are the ridings with the most polling votes.
Vote splitting between the somewhat-equally-popular Liberal and NDP candidates makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (COX, Cathy) will win.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First, tied | BRAUN, Kathryn (Liberal Party), and Green Party | 29% 29% |
| Second | MACDONALD, Elliot (New Democratic Party) | 21% |
| Third | COX, Cathy (Progressive Conservative Party) | 21% |
Vote splitting between the somewhat-equally-popular Liberal and NDP candidates makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (COOKE, Nancy) will win.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | LARKINS, Craig (Liberal Party) | 41% |
| Second | WASYLIW, Mark (New Democratic Party) | 47% |
| Third | FENNESSY, Casey (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | COOKE, Nancy (Progressive Conservative Party) | 12% |
Vote splitting between the Liberal and NDP and Manitoba Forward Party candidates makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (BRAR, Jasmine) will win. (MFP candidate added August 30, please update your vote)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | BRAR, Diljeet (New Democratic Party) | 33% |
| Second | Green Party | 17% |
| Third | GILL, Sarb (Liberal Party) | 33% |
| Fourth | BRAR, Jasmine (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Fifth | PANGILINAN, Edda (Manitoba Forward Party) | 0% |
Vote splitting among four somewhat-equally-popular non-conservative candidates makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party's candidate (DUBON, Mayra) will win.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | GEDDERT, Nicolas (Green Party) | 13% |
| Second | LOMBANA, German (Communist Party) | 38% |
| Third | MALOWAY, Jim (New Democratic Party) | 25% |
| Fourth | WOLFROM, Regan (Liberal Party) | 13% |
| Fifth | DUBON, Mayra (Progressive Conservative Party) | 13% |
Two candidates added August 30, please update your vote, thanks!
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | BEDDOME, James (Green Party) | 20% |
| Second | FRIESEN, Cyndy (Liberal Party) | 0% |
| Third | MCCRACKEN, Michael (Manitoba First Party) | 40% |
| Fourth | KINEW, Wab (New Democratic Party) | 20% |
| Fifth | NABESS, Edna (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Sixth | HEBERT, Bradley (Manitoba Forward Party) | 0% |
Vote splitting among five(!) non-conservative candidates makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party's candidate (FAWCETT, Tara) will win. (MFP candidate added August 30, please update your vote)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | DAVIS, Harold (Liberal Party) | 43% |
| Second | ASAGWARA, Uzoma (New Democratic Party) | 43% |
| Third | SHALAY, Andrea (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | CUBAS, Elsa (Communist Party) | 0% |
| Fifth | FAWCETT, Tara (Progressive Conservative Party) | 14% |
| Sixth | YAU, James (Manitoba Forward Party) | 0% |
Vote splitting between the somewhat-equally-popular Liberal and NDP candidates, plus the less-popular Green Party candidate, makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (BOULTER, Susan) will win.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | GERRARD, Jon (Liberal Party) | 38% |
| Second | NIEMCZAK, Jonathan (New Democratic Party) | 46% |
| Third | ZAHN, Nathan (Green Party) | 8% |
| Fourth | BOULTER, Susan (Progressive Conservative Party) | 8% |
Vote splitting among the three non-conservative candidates (in the Liberal, NDP, and Green parties) makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party's candidate (LARKIN, Ray) will win.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | CALISTO-TAVARES, Eddie (Liberal Party) | 43% |
| Second | MCNEIL, Joshua (Green Party) | 14% |
| Third | FONTAINE, Nahanni (New Democratic Party) | 43% |
| Fourth | LARKIN, Ray (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
Based on just 5 poll ballots, it appears that the NDP candidate (SMITH, Bernadette) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (REDMOND, Michele) is likely to win because of vote splitting among the five(!) other candidates. (MFP candidate added August 30, please update your vote)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | SMITH, Bernadette (New Democratic Party) | 50% |
| Second | KESS, Jenn (Green Party) | 25% |
| Third | SANDERSON, Richard (Liberal Party) | 25% |
| Fourth | FAINMAN, Fagie (Communist Party) | 0% |
| Fifth | REDMOND, Michele (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Sixth | WENUIK, Micheal (Manitoba Forward Party) | 0% |
Although the NDP candidate (MOSES, Jamie) is the most popular candidate, the likely splitting of votes to the less-popular Liberal and Green and Manitoba Forward Party candidates makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (MAYER, Colleen) will win. (MFP candidate added August 30, please update your vote)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | MOSES, Jamie (New Democratic Party) | 50% |
| Second | ANDERSON, Jeffrey (Liberal Party) | 17% |
| Third | DICKSON, Elizabeth (Green Party) | 33% |
| Fourth | SHARMA, Baljeet (Independent) | 0% |
| Fifth | MAYER, Colleen (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Sixth | SUTHERLAND, David (Manitoba First Party) | 0% |
Based on just 6 ballots in this poll, the results are unpredictable, yet it appears that if supporters of the apparently-least-popular Liberal party candidate (BEKKERING, Dylan) shift their support to the apparently-more-popular NDP candidate (ALTOMARE, Nello) then the otherwise-likely-winning Progressive Conservative Party candidate (YAKIMOSKI, Blair) can be defeated.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | ALTOMARE, Nello (New Democratic Party) | 50% |
| Second | BEKKERING, Dylan (Liberal Party) | 17% |
| Third | Green Party | 17% |
| Fourth | YAKIMOSKI, Blair (Progressive Conservative Party) | 17% |
Based on just 5 poll ballots it appears that the NDP candidate (ZARGANI, Dashi) is the most popular, yet vote splitting to the Liberal and NDP candidates makes it possible that the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (COOKE, Nancy) will win (assuming that this new riding contains lots of conservative voters).
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | ZARGANI, Dashi (New Democratic Party) | 60% |
| Second | HAFTANI, Fiona (Liberal Party) | 0% |
| Third | DUCAS, James (Green Party) | 20% |
| Fourth | (Independent candidate who dropped out) | 0% |
| Fifth | REYES, Jon (Progressive Conservative Party) | 20% |
Based on just 7 poll ballots, it appears that the Liberal candidate (KENSLEY, LéAmber) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (GOERTZEN, Kelvin) has a good chance of winning because of vote splitting among the three non-conservative candidates.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | KENSLEY, LéAmber (Liberal Party) | 57% |
| Second | JESSUP, Robert (New Democratic Party) | 29% |
| Third | GIBSON, Janine (Green Party) | 14% |
| Fourth | GOERTZEN, Kelvin (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
Based on 19 poll ballots it appears that the Green Party candidate (NICKARZ, David) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (HILDEBRAND, Elizabeth) has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the three(!) other candidates shift their vote to the Green Party candidate. (MFP candidate added August 31, please update your vote)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | NICKARZ, David (Green Party) | 75% |
| Second | NAYLOR, Lisa (New Democratic Party) | 15% |
| Third | STRONG, Shandi (Liberal Party) | 10% |
| Fourth | HILDEBRAND, Elizabeth (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Fifth | HENDRICKSON, Eddie (Independent) | 0% |
There are not yet enough diverse ballots in this riding to recommend a voting stratgey. (Previously, based on just 5 poll ballots, it appeared that the NDP candidate (ISLAM, Durdana) was the most popular, yet additional information suggests that in this riding Liberal candidates get more votes than NDP candidates.)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | BLOOMFIELD, James (Liberal Party) | 83% |
| Second | ISLAM, Durdana (New Democratic Party) | 17% |
| Third | LAMOUREUX, Bryanne (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | MORLEY-LECOMTE, Janice (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
Based on 16 poll ballots it appears that the Liberal party candidate (LAMONT, Dougald) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (HOSKINS, Megan) has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the Green and NDP and Manitoba Forward party candidates shift their vote to the Liberal party candidate. (MFP candidate added August 30, please update your vote)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | LAMONT, Dougald (Liberal Party) | 81% |
| Second | SIMS, Laurissa (New Democratic Party) | 13% |
| Third | JEANSON, Jaclyn (Green Party) | 6% |
| Fourth | HOSKINS, Megan (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Fifth | FORTIER, Simone (Manitoba Forward Party) | 0% |
Based on 18 poll ballots it appears that the NDP candidate (SALA, Adrien) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (RICHARD, Michelle) has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the Liberal and Green party candidates shift their vote to the NDP candidate.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | SALA, Adrien (New Democratic Party) | 69% |
| Second | HOHNE, Bernd (Liberal Party) | 13% |
| Third | BUHSE, Jeff (Green Party) | 6% |
| Fourth | RICHARD, Michelle (Progressive Conservative Party) | 13% |
Based on 9 poll ballots it appears that the NDP candidate (MORTON, Kurt) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (FIELDING, Scott) has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the Green and Liberal party candidates shift their vote to the NDP candidate.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | MORTON, Kurt (New Democratic Party) | 70% |
| Second, tied | NATHANIEL, Ernie (Liberal Party), and BAYOMI, Dennis (Green Party) | 0% 20% |
| Third | FIELDING, Scott (Progressive Conservative Party) | 10% |
There are not yet enough diverse ballots in this riding to recommend a voting stratgey. (Previously, based on 9 poll ballots, it appeared that the NDP candidate (COMPTON, Carla) was the most popular, yet additional information suggests that in this riding Liberal candidates get more votes than NDP candidates.)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | COMPTON, Carla (New Democratic Party) | 80% |
| Second | BRANDSON, Marc (Liberal Party) | 10% |
| Third | LAUHN-JENSEN, Kristin (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | STEFANSON, Heather (Progressive Conservative Party) | 10% |
| Fifth | AL-SAHI, Abby (Manitoba First Party) | 0% |
Based on 8 poll ballots it appears that the NDP candidate (MYSHKOWSKY, Karen) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (GORDON, Audrey) has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the Liberal and Green and Manitoba First party candidates shift their vote to the NDP candidate. (MFP candidate added August 30, please update your vote)
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | MYSHKOWSKY, Karen (New Democratic Party) | 78% |
| Second | DUNCANSON, Spencer (Liberal Party) | 22% |
| Third | QUINTON, Katherine (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | GORDON, Audrey (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Fifth | CAIRNS, Robert (Manitoba Forward Party) | 0% |
Based on just 6 poll ballots it appears that the NDP candidate (REGIER, Andy) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (MICKLEFIELD, Andrew) has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the Green and Liberal party candidates shift their vote to the NDP candidate.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | REGIER, Andy (New Democratic Party) | 67% |
| Second | BAZAN, Amanda (Green Party) | 17% |
| Third | OYELERU, Isaiah (Liberal Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | MICKLEFIELD, Andrew (Progressive Conservative Party) | 17% |
Based on just 6 poll ballots it appears that the Liberal party candidate (BRAR, Deep) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (SANDHU, Aman) — not to be confused with SANDHU, Mintu who is the NDP candidate — has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the NDP and Green party candidates shift their vote to the Liberal party candidate.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | BRAR, Deep (Liberal Party) | 83% |
| Second | SANDHU, Mintu (New Democratic Party) | 17% |
| Third | GILL, Kiran (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | SANDHU, Aman (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
This riding's poll does not yet have enough ballots to provide meaningful information.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | OBACH, Mitch (New Democratic Party) | 80% |
| Second | OLCEN, Philip (Liberal Party) | 0% |
| Third | HILL, Tony (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | LAGIMODIERE, Alan (Progressive Conservative Party) | 20% |
Based on just 5 poll ballots it appears that the Liberal party candidate (SACHER, Jake) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (SMITH, Andrew) has a chance of winning unless lots of the supporters of the NDP and Green party candidates shift their vote to the Liberal party candidate.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | SACHER, Jake (Liberal Party) | 60% |
| Second | CROSS, Billie (New Democratic Party) | 20% |
| Third | KRUL, Bob (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | SMITH, Andrew (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
Based on 5 poll ballots it appears that the NDP candidate (MOYES, Mike) is the most popular, yet the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (SQUIRES, Rochelle) has a good chance of winning unless the supporters of the Liberal and Green party candidates shift their vote to the NDP candidate.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | MOYES, Mike (New Democratic Party) | 60% |
| Second | JOHNSTON, Neil (Liberal Party) | 40% |
| Third | SCHELLENBERG, Roger (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | SQUIRES, Rochelle (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | NAGRA, Tanjit (Liberal Party) | 60% |
| Second | WONG, George (New Democratic Party) | 40% |
| Third | PROULX, Cameron (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | GUILLEMARD, Sarah (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
Vote splitting between the NDP and Green and Liberal and Manitoba First party candidates makes it likely that the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (MARTIN, Shannon) will win.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | MCFARLANE, Greg (New Democratic Party) | 50% |
| Second | CACAYURAN, John (Liberal Party) | 0% |
| Third | WHEELER, Dave (Manitoba First Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | SMITH, Jason (Green Party) | 25% |
| Fifth | MARTIN, Shannon (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
Based on just 4 poll ballots the Progressive Conservative Party candidate (TEITSMA, James) is likely to win because of vote splitting among the NDP and Liberal and Green party candidates.
| Popularity (based on pairwise counting) | Candidate or Party | Plurality count (First Past The Post) |
| First | SANDHU, Raj (New Democratic Party) | 75% |
| Second | HANSEN-PRATT, Tanya (Liberal Party) | 25% |
| Third | RUNIONS, Carlianne (Green Party) | 0% |
| Fourth | TEITSMA, James (Progressive Conservative Party) | 0% |
If you know anyone in any of these ridings, please encourage them to vote in their riding's poll.